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Feeling hot hot hot?

08/01/2014


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The globally-averaged temperature for November 2013 was the highest for November since record keeping began in 1880. November 2013 also marks the 37th consecutive November and 345th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php

(Think about this people. If you toss a coin, what are the statistical chances that you toss 345 heads in a row? Click on the image below to find out! Astronomical!)

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cointossprob2
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Hello again blog world. I’ve been away from blogging for far too long so why not get back into it!
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Australia had had a hell of a hot year. The Bureau of Meteorology recorded the whole thing. And there has been some interesting data indeed.
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20140103_daily_tmean_anom_sm (1)
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The first thing to note is 2013 was the warmest year on record. Since 1910 in fact. Yes. I know. Some will say that it was hotter 15 million years ago. Some people just wont accept data. Or graphs.
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Lets see if we can see a trend shall we?
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20140103_Tmean_plot
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And…
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20140103_SSTa_plot
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Yes. I know what those who don’t believe in climate change will say next. “What about that ship stuck in the ice?” and “It snowed in Egypt!” and “What about the polar vortex in the USA?”. Well firstly, these events come in under the term ‘extreme weather’ and secondly, that is exactly what this is. Weather. Duplicitous anti-climate change people play down the heat and call that only weather, but when you get cold weather, they claim its the end of climate change and the warming the planet is experiencing.
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But lets have a think about all these events. Snow is a result of cold weather and lots of water vapor in the atmosphere. Now how does the water vapor get in the atmosphere? Well I’m glad you asked. Evaporation. This happens when the planet WARMS and the oceans get hotter and water changes form from a liquid to a gas. And this next graph from the National Climatic Data Center for November 2013 will help you see that the planet IS warming.
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201311
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As you can clearly see, the US actually had a cooler month than the rest of the world. So did most of Australia. But the US is not the only place in the world. Nor is Australia. Most of the planet is covered in water. And there is a lot of red over that water. So the water heats up and up goes the water vapor. And yes. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas.
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Now we know water vapor is hotter than normal water. At least I hope you know this. It is a gas for a reason after all. At this stage of the post, I am going to digress again just so you all know its me.
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When I was much younger, we did a ice cube experiment. We filled a ice cube container with tap water, another with ice cold water, and a third with hot water and placed them in the fridge. Can you guess which container froze first? That’s right. The HOT water. Weird huh? But thats the law of thermodynamics for you.
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Now. Back to my argument. Firstly, a quote from the NCDC for the month of November.
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The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November was record highest for November, at 56.60°F (13.68°C) or 1.40°F (0.78°C) above the 20th century average. The margin of error associated with this temperature is ±0.13°F (0.07°C).

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And now one from BOM.
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Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Australia were unusually warm throughout the year, with the monthly anomalies for January and February the highest on record and that for November the second-highest on record. This extends a period of sustained record-high SSTs in the Australian region since 2010.

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Now lets try a little logic. Since hotter water freezes faster than colder water, when that blizzard hit the area the research vessel was in Antarctica, the ship was caught out in rather fast freezing ice. That answers question one of the doubters. As for snow in Egypt or the polar vortex crossing the US, lets try this. We know the seas are warming. We can see that most of the heat was in fact hitting the oceans and seas this year. This creates more water vapor. More water vapor means when you get a winter such as in Egypt or in the USA, the extra moisture in the air cools and down comes the snow. More water vapor means more snow and more rain. In fact Egypt usually gets a lot of rain during its winter and this winter there was enough water vapor up there for them to get snow. Just a little more water than usual. So thats number two.
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The polar vortex in the USA is a combination of events. Cold air being pulled by hot air creating a jet stream. A convection event occurs. Convection is another term you see often connected to HEAT. In fact there are three ways that heat is transferred. One is radiation – the Sun does this to our planet. One is conduction – this is where heat moves from one part of a body to another. An example would be where you put the tip of a steel rod into a furnace and eventually the heat will move to the parts of the rod that are not in the flame but it wont be as hot as the tip. And the third is convection. Where heat transfers from a warmer body to a cooler body. So how do you get snow? Heat transfer. A cold front hits a warm front. Weird again huh?
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All these events occur and are documented in what are called the laws of thermodynamics. And yes. Thermo means heat because heat is energy. The warmer the planet, the more energy. The more energy, the more extreme weather. This post will no doubt anger the doubters some more. Sorry about that. Science is science. It does not belong to a political party or an ideology. It is just a bunch of physical laws.
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A. Ghebranious January, 2014
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Bugger. Forgot to mention salinity and effects at the poles. Will have to write posts in the morning rather than evening from now on but here is a piece on Sea Ice

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