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Floods, Droughts, Climate Change, and how to read a Bell Curve.

01/03/2012

If you have not noticed, its raining a lot in Australia recently. For some, this means that climate change is crap and we will never have another drought. Tony Abbott is in that league. Tony Abbott said that CO2 is weightless. But I have tweeted @TonyAbbottMHR and asked him this question. What weighs more? A tonne of steel or a tonne of CO2? Abbott is still to get back to me.

To some, the rain is proof that Tim Flannery is an idiot. Really? Oh yes they cry! Look at all the rain. Fair enough. But also look at a bell curve people! What a bell curve does is average out the standard deviation. If you look at the curve above, over 50% of all possibilities fall in the red zone. 35% in the green, 10% in the blue and 5% or under in the white. That is 95% of the time you expect the result to be in the red, green or blue zones.

Now this does not mean that unusual weather patterns do not occur! They do. Less then 5% of the time.

What climate change will do though is shift the median of the bell curve. That is instead of the average being at 50% on the graph, it will shift. Either towards the 45% or towards the 55%. When that happens, then the weather that used to happen at 5% becomes more prevalent. THAT is what climate change is. You get this.

CLIMATE CHANGE: What used to happen less then 5% of the time will happen more often

In other words, weather patterns that used to only happen 5% of the time or less WILL occur more often.

The other thing people don’t seem to want to talk about is the laws of thermodynamics or Newtons’ laws of physics.

To every reaction, there is an equal and opposite reaction said Newton. This law also applies in thermodynamics. If the climate at the poles begin to warm then the weather at the tropics will begin to cool. Equal, opposite, reactions.

Likewise when it floods on one side of the planet, you get drought on another. Equal, opposite, reactions.

What climate change is is the shifting of the standard deviation of weather. Longer wet summer seasons affect when insects breed. It affects their chance of survival. And if they miss a month or two, then expect pollination of crops to be out by a month or two. Also what does extended rain periods do to the soil? Will it soak through or water log the soil and never actually get to the deeper roots? What happens when that moisture dries in humid climates? Will the soil crack?

Climate change is much more then about if you need an umbrella for the day.

A. Ghebranious

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3 Comments
  1. Robina permalink

    Great article, you never hear the Opposition talk of the impact of Fire Drought Floods on the costs of running a country. These are climate change events. Another amazing impact on climate is the devastation of War. Completely bombed out eco systems causes climate change eg Vietnam Africa.
    I don’t think Abbott et al have the capacity to extrapolate the cause and effect phenomena.

    We need to make people aware . Another one of course is the way Cattle are fed . We grain feed them to get a quick fattening to market effect, and it has been a disaster for the environment. Grass feeding produces about one third of gas emissions from our farm animals.
    Yesterday a US scientist pointed out that Australia had no right to close up our fishing grounds and call them pristine National Parks. Because the end result is , the fishing grounds of other nations are depleted supplying us with our Fish requirements, I had never thought of it like that!!
    R

  2. Ash. Can you get a job on Sky Weather Channel. They can’t forecast the weather for more than 24 hours. You should do wonders there as you can forecast weather for 100 years.
    Thanking you in your new role and thanks from my fellow fishing mates.

  3. Ash! Global warming hypocrisy has finally burnt you out! Flannery said it could take a thousand years for any discernable temperature differential to occur. He bought a house in an allegedly flood-prone area. He claimed Sydney would be inundated by this time, whilst Adelaide would no longer have a river. These predictions are proven false.
    He is paid by the Prime Minister, MissAjony, to find ways to promote the pointless Carbon Tax.
    Do you believe anything the Nutty Professor says? Perhaps your belief in his credibility is selective.
    What weighs more:
    A Tonne of French Fries,
    or a Tonne of Tim’s Lies?

    Ashes to Ashes,
    Dust to Dust,
    The Future’s Great,
    In God we Trust!

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