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Who gains?

07/12/2011

In the lead up of the 2010 election, the numbers where being crushed. On both sides. As each poll came in the numbers shifted from one major party to another. And as the pieces finally fell into place, a hung parliament was the result. Was this manipulated?

The 2010 election was a mighty interesting one. The result was one of chicken. The remarkable aspect of that election was this: the conservative major parties elected to preference the left.

A few commentators pointed out quite quickly that there would be no hung parliament if Adam Bandt did not win his seat in Melbourne. But he did. With Coalition preferences.

I understand what the Coalition were doing. They where defeated dramatically in the 2007 election. And under the leadership of Tony Abbott, the conservatives were BACK!. This is 100% due to Tony Abbott and all credit should be showered onto him. 24 seats moved to the ALP in the 2007 election. In the 2010 election, the conservatives had won 11 back. These are the number of seats that changed hands in both elections.

And to deny the ALP an outright number of seats, the Coalition opted to preference the far left over the centre left.

The result was the hung parliament we have today.

The News Limited media seem most remiss to mention that the real reason the Greens now have a seat in the house of representatives was because the Conservatives handed it to them. They also preferenced them in the senate. Not that the Greens needed those votes.

So why did Abbott do this? Simple. Chicken. No. Not him. The game.

Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard are the ying and the yang of each other. They were destined to battle this game. And game it became.

Abbott dared Gillard. Do you really want to play with those Greens he dared? And she dared back. Yes. She would use the far left if Abbott refused to play. And so she did.

Now lets slow down a little. Lets try some hypotheticals here. What if the Coalition had sat on the Multi Party Climate Change Committe? What would have happened? Well. The Greens would have said carbon tax and the Coalition would have said ‘No! ETS’ and the right leaning Gillard would have complied. The government would have had the coalition assistance and the Greens would have been cut off as would have the independents.

Instead, Abbott played chicken. He dared Gillard to compromise with the Greens and two centre right independents. He assumed she would fail.

But when you assume, you make an ass of you and me.

Gillard was able to negotiate a deal with the Greens that the Independents could agree too. Disaster! Even despite the attack on the government of being in a Green alliance despite the fact that it was the Coalition that had given the Greens the power they had.

Further, he was annoyed the Indies had sided with the agreement! How dare they! Well easy really. The plan the government has come to I scale around near brilliant!

The 18K tax free threshold must have angered Abbott! It certainly angered Joe Hockey who began the search for 70 billion of cuts.

Abbott continued to put pressure on the government play announcing that Bob Brown really ran the country. And the media all agreed.

But what the media do not highlight is why the Greens have so much influence at all.

The commentators all agree that the ALP vote has been fractured and the Greens have been the beneficiary. This was what happened! This is why the Coalition preferenced the Greens in the first place!

But what the Coalition did not consider was that several Greens gained seats in the Senate WITHOUT the need of Coalition preferences.

When Abbott refused to have a Coalition representative sit on the MPCCC, he virtually relinquished his and his parties say. All those who had voted Coalition and hoping they would be involved in doing something about Climate Change where slapped.

Further, while the media played on Alan Jones JuLiar glib, not one single commentator has come forward with evidence that the ALP or Gillard knew what the result of the election would be, nor did they expect the conservative coalition to preference the far left parties.

But when you play chicken, you play chicken.

Abbott cleverly kept hammering at the Greens and the Independents hoping for the failure of anything from the MPCCC with such a diverse set of views. He must have shat himself two colours of brown when they did. He must have shat a third when the business community and 9 out of 10 economists gave it the thumbs up.

Abbott blamed CO2 calling it weightless. Malcolm Turnbull offered to drop 20kg of dry ice on his foot.

It soon became clear that the Coalition had lost this game of chicken. But another was still in play. Asylum Seekers. Those brown sheet wearing asylum seekers.

The Coalition went after the government, hoping to fracture the support from the greens and they did! However, Gillard responded with a game of chicken of her own.

If she could not have her off shore policy, she would go to an on shore policy.

This however is not a two party game. It is a three party game. The Greens deny that any on shore only policy will only increase boat arrivals. So while more and more come, the Greens are looking a little greener.

Further, the Coalition, who are playing a game of ‘what do you do after you send the 800’, have to play the same game re Nauru.

Nauru has a population of 9000 people. So if the Coalition was to send them 1,500 asylum seekers, then Australia has to pay for 15% increases in policing, 15% increase in food, in doctors, lawyers, buses, schools, doctors, water, etc. They also have to address the high (50%) unemployment rate in Nauru and explain how asylum seekers can get jobs.

Meanwhile, the government has to also explain its Malaysia agreement and what it actually does.

You see, Nauru wont solve shit. It did not solve shit before. Despite the fact that shit is its major export.

It was all about turning back the boats.

And so this is where the coalition is snookered in this new game. They dont want people to make the dangerous trip in leaky boats they say. And they whisper that they intend to make some make return trips in same leaky boats.

War produces refugees. Its a by product. We went to war. We now are seeing the by product.

After world war two, Australia sent its naval fleet to Europe to pick up and bring to Australia boat loads of refugees.

Under the Howard government, Australian naval fleets fired upon boats containing refugees.

That is what stops the boats. That is what Abbott wants to reinstate. And that is what I refuse to allow.

Recently the polls are shifting. The ALP numbers that had deserted the ALP to the Coalition are now moving to the Greens. The game Abbott began in the 2010 election is now getting out of his control.

The rise of the greens was instigated by the coalition. They had most to gain from a fractured ALP. The coalition attack on the government has only increased the Green vote and recently, the coalition vote itself has taken a hit.

Abbott is now facing a new game. The Greens he had hoped to marginalise at the ALP expense have now become a major force. Further, the coalition and the government itself have now become reliant on the Greens to help them get policy through or thwarted.

All because Abbott wanted to play chicken and Gillard played his bluff.

A preference a day, keeps the Greens in the hay.

A. Ghebranious 2011 (All Rights Reserved)

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3 Comments
  1. Ninette permalink

    Wait for the next election before you boast. The liberals will put the greens last and they wont have a hope in hell. The libs will breeze it in and win a majority. The greens wont even win a seat. CARN THE LIBS

  2. Pip permalink

    Ninette, i’m waiting to see whether the libs can come up with a policy. Nothing so far.

  3. Jennifer Baratta permalink

    Good luck with this government Ash! Its Peral Harbor Day here in USA.

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