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North and South

29/08/2011

Polls are looking bad for the government in Queensland. In fact, papers tell us that if an election was happening today, the government would be left with one seat, that of Kevin Rudd.

http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/rudd-would-be-last-labor-man-standing-in-queensland-poll-20110829-1jgx4.html

Rudd would be last Labor man standing in Queensland: poll

August 29, 2011 – 6:45AMPotentially facing a lonely future … Kevin Rudd. Photo: Glenn Hunt

He may have been dumped as prime minister but if an election were called, Kevin Rudd would be the only federal Labor MP left standing in Queensland, according to the latest Galaxy poll.

The poll, conducted for The Courier-Mail, shows that support for Prime Minister Julia Gillard has crashed to an all-time low in Queensland.

In the worst result ever recorded in a Galaxy poll for the newspaper, Labor could manage just 23 per cent of the state’s voters in a poll conducted last week.

While this bodes ill for the Prime Minister, it also offers a little ray of hope. What can I say. I’m an optimist.

If this poll is indicative of current anti ALP sentiment in QLD, then it means that the federal polls showing a 43 – 57 result is strongly tied into the swing in the North.

It is also interesting to compare this poll result with the election result of August last year.

TWO PARTY PREFERRED BY STATE

State Australian Labor Party Liberal/National Coalition Total Swing
Votes % Votes %
New South Wales 1,958,077 48.84 2,051,241 51.16 4,009,318 -4.84
Victoria 1,758,982 55.31 1,421,202 44.69 3,180,184 +1.04
Queensland 1,069,504 44.86 1,314,675 55.14 2,384,179 -5.58
Western Australia 524,861 43.59 679,140 56.41 1,204,001 -3.15
South Australia 521,115 53.18 458,834 46.82 979,949 +0.78
Tasmania 198,322 60.62 128,830 39.38 327,152 +4.41
Australian Capital Territory 137,948 61.67 85,749 38.33 223,697 -1.73
Northern Territory 47,636 50.74 46,247 49.26 93,883 -4.67
National 6,216,445 50.12 6,185,918 49.88 12,402,363 -2.58

The Queensland 2pp for the coalition back last year came in at 55.14 with one of the biggest swings away from the ALP with -5.58. But where oh where did those votes go?

FIRST PREFERENCES FOR QUEENSLAND
Enrolment: 2,719,360   Turnout: 92.73%
Party Votes Percentage % Swing %
Australian Labor Party 800,712 33.58 -9.33
Liberal National Party of Queensland 1,130,525 47.42 +2.95
The Greens 260,471 10.92 +5.29
Family First 92,794 3.89 +1.62
One Nation 3,921 0.16 -0.20
Citizens Electoral Council 1,462 0.06 -0.09
Liberal Democrats (LDP) 4,662 0.20 +0.05
Socialist Alliance 717 0.03 -0.02
DLP – Democratic Labor Party 4,590 0.19 +0.19
Secular Party of Australia 414 0.02 +0.02
Independent 83,310 3.49 +0.50
Non Affiliated 601 0.03 +0.03
…. 0 0.00 -1.02
FORMAL 2,384,179 94.55 -1.89
INFORMAL 137,395 5.45 +1.89
TOTAL 2,521,574 92.73 -1.64

Of the huge 9.33% swing AWAY from ALP at the last election, it seems the biggest benefactor where The Greens picking up a whopping 5.29% of that swing away. The LNP mustered a proud 2.95% (just a little over half the swing of The Greens). And while the Family First party was able to muster 1.62% (just a little over half of the swing of the LNP), informal beat it out with 1.89%.

The other thing of note is a 9.33% swing away in first preferences resulted in 5.58% in the two party preferred. And of course the other is The Greens registered 12% of the first preferences in the QLD Galaxy poll. You would think this would have declined.

So you are probably wanting to see the evidence I have that this strong polling in Queensland for the coalition will not translate in other states? Well for a start, the Liberal National Party of Queensland is not the National Party or the Liberal Party. They are an entity to themselves.

In fact, of the current 72 seats the coalition claim, the LNP of Queensland hold claim to 21 with the Liberals claiming 44 and the Nationals holding only 7. Yet shadow ministeries tend not to favour them. The sit on the backbench bidding their time. And they see it has now come.

Coal Seam Gas mining is about to be Abbott’s biggest test. The Nationals and the Liberal seem to be at odds with some of what is being said. And you can bet the LNP of Queensland would also have a view.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/national/national/general/coalition-angst-at-abbotts-attitude/2273068.aspx?src=rss

Coalition ‘angst’ at Abbott’s attitude

BY CHRIS JOHNSON CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
29 Aug, 2011 12:00 AM

Tony Abbott has little trust for his front bench and is paranoid about being double-crossed, according to a number of senior members of his team who have expressed a growing unease over the Opposition Leader’s style.Some shadow ministers as well as numerous backbenchers have told The Canberra Times that Mr Abbott is nervous about many of those around him and that he is making too many unilateral decisions.

But the Opposition Leader denies the allegations, his office saying yesterday that the claims were ”self-evidently false”.

And yet Tony Abbott felt the need to stamp his authority in regards to the pairing last week. The fact was Abbott was never going to win any motion needing 76 votes and only mustering 73. Still, 71-73 looks better then say 70-72 maybe. Who knows. And while many of the front bench have towed the party line on why the need to be so dictatorial, it still begs the question on why he needs to appear that way to his own party.

The other factor in this big skew between Northern and Southern states is this. While other states benefit from more then one ‘state’ paper of note, Queensland has only one. The Murdoch owned ‘Courier Mail’. I guess when the only opinion you read or hear is limited in subjectivity, then you start to mistake it for truth.

Still. Big challenge ahead not just for the Prime Minister, but the entire ALP in Queensland which will make the ministers in those string thread bare electorates to double think on issues on the governments agenda.

The other thing to note is Abbott is GREAT at attacking a government policy. He is not all that great at selling coalition policy. In fact, during the election, he could not articulate aspects of the NBN or go into detailed economic depth on issues of his own policy. And finally, if there was an election, scrutiny will return to the coalition’s 70 billion in cuts and they may not have an answer that can hold them in good stead through an election campaign.

So while the news in Queensland is not good for the ALP, the coalition can’t really capitalise on it at the moment for at least 70 billion reasons. Also an election will only heighten the issues of CSG mining and the Liberals may not want to go there. But never fear Australia! I am sure that even though there is no chance of an election for the next 2 years (touch wood), the polls will continue to tell you what to think on a regular basis.

Hung Parliaments are big business for polling companies it seems. While the public do not like their politicians to be poll driven, they certainly have a drive for polls.

A. Ghebranious 2011 (All Rights Reserved)

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3 Comments
  1. Jennifer Baratta permalink

    OH Dear be woried be scared. Cause this ouccrs eveysingle dang election year.

    • Oh this is worse. There is no election due for two years

  2. Jennifer Baratta permalink

    OUCH!

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