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Leverage

18/06/2011

Has the federal coalition given the government a helping hand? Oh don’t get me wrong. I doubt they intended to. According to the polls, the government is in much difficulty. But are they really?

The minority government is just that. Minority. So a poll that hurts the government affect all players. But the alternative is they withdraw support and put the coalition into power. And no doubt shortly after that, the coalition would call an election and make hay while the polls shine. The independents would be fractured and the greens moment of sunshine is extinguished before it is begun.

The current cement is the carbon price. While some independents would be sizing up their seats, the alternative now would be the same either way. The greens are about to enjoy a position of sway in the senate. While this may work with the ALP, the L/NP would be much more harder to work with.

Now return to what is at hand. The agreement on a carbon price. Where the independents and greens hold out for their interests, they will soon see that the current circumstances dictate that they come to a compromise. A compromise that may not give the greens the restrictions they want, but maybe sufficient for them to agree. Hell! It maybe good enough for the coalition to agree. Also lets not forget business who can also insist on compromise. And no. Business does not want to see the proposal fail and put them in limbo till the next election either.

So all the parties are hearing the ruckus in the polls and one can assume since the talks have not yet broken down at all, all parties are working in good faith. If a model comes out that all agree to, then the PM is right when she suggests that if business is happy, then the tide turns.

However. What the government MUST do is think long and hard about its asylum seeker policy. They have fallen for the urgency that the coalition claim the situation is in.  A proper agreement in the region will work, but only if the asylum seekers are processed in a UN protected regional processing centre.

Still. I am surprised by a nation that protests about a *possible* situation that will only occur if someone transgresses a nations laws, but have no compulsion with stranding the same asylum seekers in a limbo.

The government has to do several things. They are doing everything legally to go after the industry that is people smugglers. But while people are willing to risk the trip for speedier processing, they will. Unless there is the chance that they not only will not be processed any faster then if they stay where they are, but also get sent to a country with much more asylum seekers already there. And that means processing there may even be slower.

That is the real threat. Not caning. Some of these people are fleeing countries where laws are much harder then that. The problem that I see is if the treatment of the asylum seekers sent to Malaysia from Australia is ‘better’ then those there, there will be resentment. Further, if those who do go to Malaysia have their applications processed faster and find placement faster, then Australia maybe where those in boats come so we can send them to Malaysia.

That is the problem here. That what really should be done is refugees in EVERY processing centre should be treated the same. It is to those centres that money should be spent, not on detention centres. The walls we placed between ‘us’ and ‘them’ have damaged our ability to treat people like people.

But if you ask me, the players in minority government have a decision to make. Compromise and continue to have an influence, or withdraw and hand over a majority government to a party that will NOT listen to them.

I feel those reporting the death of the government maybe over exaggerating. The advantage the government has is the same thing that got them into power.

The ability to negotiate. Even if not the ability to say the word at times.  Of course, negotiation is all about haggling.

A. Ghebranious   2011  (All Rights Reserved)

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From → Politics

2 Comments
  1. Jennifer Baratta permalink

    Oh dear life has never been simple.

  2. We should take heed of a comment of Mr. Windsor in the last couple of days.

    He said that the PM is a wonderful negotiator and is holding the government together.

    That sounds like leadership to me. The PM has a history of being a achiever, why would it be any different now.

    Not quite the picture that the media is presenting of the PM.

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