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The Cause/Effect trap

12/06/2011

How do you get out of a vicious cycle. Even one of your own making?

According to Mr Abbott, if we introduce a price on carbon then that would reduce jobs in the mining industry by 24,000 in ten years. The fact that 300,000 jobs were created last year in Australia seems to fall on death ears to him. Its mining or bust.

He thinks that imposing a tax will slow our production. Another thing that seemed to slow down production really well was when disasters interfered not only in this country but to some of our trading partners. In fact, we lost 30% of production in one quarter. That is a 1% GDP loss to a 3% GDP growth.

Now if the climate scientists are right, we can expect unstable weather to be regular part of the way the planet will react. Even if we were to get a GDP hit once every 3 years due to either direct or indirect climate effects, guess what Mr Abbott. Then that will affect the jobs not only in the mining industry, but the rest of the country as well.

And we are not talking the effect on production of a carbon price. That will only lower production by a few percentage points at most. No. We are talking about loss of life production changes that seem to have a 30% hit to production every 3 years or 10% a year on average. But Mr Abbott does not want to mention that.

The trap is not closing so much as closed.

We created an economy that created the shit that is killing the planet. And instead of focusing on life or the planet, we discuss the economy.

We try and reduce emissions but we are living in a world with growing climate extremes that make us use more energy to keep us cool during summer and more energy to keep us warm in winter. This is part of the reason why emissions grow. And industry refuses to stop emitting. Not when there is such a huge demand for their product.

Rinse. Repeat.

If we don’t reduce the emissions we make, then the weather will reduce the population of people emitting them.

Either way Mr Abbott. Its your choice.

Jobs. Or lives.

Both ways will lower production. But one we can control and the other controls us.

Alan Jones likes decimal points.

Alan Jones: … of all the carbon dioxide Australians are producing .000018 of a per cent. Give me a break, Doc!

WHITE NOISE

Alan Jones: I’m simply saying that Australians – you’ve agreed with me – are producing .000018% of carbon dioxide

— 2GB, the Alan Jones Breakfast Show, 25th May, 2011

Professor Karoly did of course respond to Alan. He sent him an email. Alan forgot to mention it. Media watch did not.

From: David Karoly
Date: Thu, 26 May 2011 06:55:53 +1000
To: Paul Christenson
Conversation: Alan Jones program
Subject: Re: Alan Jones program
Hi Paul,
Thanks for the opportunity to participate in the Alan Jones show yesterday morning.
I would be grateful if you or Alan could correct two mistakes.
First, the podcast link for my interview labels me as a climate change advocate. That is a mistake.
I do not advocate for climate change. I am a climate change scientist. Please change that on the
web site.
Second, I made a mistake and Alan Jones made a mistake with the maths that he did quickly at
the start of the interview.
He correctly said that CO2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere.
He correctly said that human emissions of CO2 are about 3% of the annual fluxes of CO2 into the
atmosphere.
He correctly said that Australian emissions are about 1.5% of the 3%, or about 0.045% of the
total annual production of CO2 going into or out of the atmosphere.
He then made a series of mistakes. It is a mistake to multiply the first number 0.04% by the last
number 0.045% to try to get the Australian contribution to actual CO2 in the atmosphere.
The actual number for the Australian contribution to CO2 in the atmosphere is 1.5% of the
anthropogenic increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, 30% of the total, so that 0.45% of the total
CO2 in the atmosphere is due to Australians.
This has to be multiplied by 0.04% to give the Australian CO2 as a total fraction of the
atmosphere, which is 0.00018%.
This is still a small number, but it has a lot less zeroes than Alan said.
It was a mistake for me to agree with Alan on those numbers, as I didn’t have time to do the
calculations in my head. I am happy to admit I made a mistake.
Given Alan’s obvious interest in the interview to get the numbers correct, and confirmed by me, I
am sure that he will be keen to admit his mistake on air and give a correction.
Best wishes,  David
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Prof David Karoly
School of Earth Sciences
University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, AUSTRALIA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Big deal you say. It’s only 0.045%  of total carbon emissions. Is it?

We know that CO2 makes up a mere 0.04% of the atmosphere. We know the planet emits 97% naturally and the planet cleans up its own mess.

The three percent man adds yearly is not cleaned up by man and the planet is busy. Therefore 0.045% of  the 3% of all emissions contributed by man is 1/60th of all man made emissions as the 97% of CO2 the planet produces is not man made. Not bad for a small country in a 195 country world.

We definitely love to push above our weight don’t we?.

You push a ball and it moves. You push a planet and it reacts. The ball you can stop. The planet you can not stop so easily. There is a balance. A harmony. But there is little profit to it. Little value.

Unless you value life that is.

(Great sound track on following video –Artists : Sacred Spirit – track “Yeha-Noha (Wishes of Happiness and Prosperity)” )

A Native American translation for this song:

Let us eclipse the the sun and the moon with our spiritual and emotional being,

and let us transcend these physical barriers and negativity which have made us a nation of one.

May the winds of time put into motion this feeling we share with our Mother Earth and this universe till the end of time.

May the creator bestow upon us a grand sense of unity and peace which we will continue to pass on to our people, wherever they reside.

A. Ghebranious 2011 (All Rights Reserved)

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One Comment
  1. Jennifer Baratta permalink

    Well said

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