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Polls apart.

23/10/2010

‘Something is wrong in the state of Denmark’. And it seems the media in Australia too.

THE AUSTRALIAN online is still quoting the NEWSPOLL poll of October the 8th as the latest poll.

It is not. In fact the  latest poll is a Morgan Gallop poll.

SOURCE: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4591/

As is evident in the above graph, both Morgan Gallop and Newspoll converged on the 21st of August 2001 (election day), but since then the gap between the L-NP and the ALP has widened. At one point the ALP 2pp at was 55.5% and the L-NP was at 44.5%

Now what is interesting the NEWSPOLL figures seems to have flat lined post the election in regards to their 2pp figures.

COALITION LABOR
% %
Newspoll 30 April-2 May 2010# 51 49
Newspoll 14-16 May 2010# 50 50
Newspoll 28-30 May 2010# 49 51
Newspoll 18-20 June 2010# 48 52
Newspoll 25-27 June 2010# 47 53
Newspoll 16-18 July 2010# 45 55
Newspoll 23-25 July 2010# 48 52
Newspoll 30 July – 1 August 2010# 50 50
Newspoll 6-8 August 2010# 48 52
Newspoll 13-15 August 2010# 48 52
Newspoll 17-19 August 2010# 49.8 50.2
Election 21 August 2010 49.9 50.1
Newspoll 10-12 September 2010# 50 50
Newspoll 8-10 October 2010# 50 50

SOURCE: http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl Using a range of May 1st 2010 to October 23 2010

The reason why I find it all strange is the 2pp is NEVER static. It shifts weekly depending on public mood and political gaffes. Even the graph that appears in the Australian demonstrates this with troughs and peaks on a regular basis. But according to THE AUSTRALIAN and NEWSPOLL, suddenly all these troughs and peaks have been ironed out.

The Morgan Gallop poll on the other hand seems to indicate those peaks and troughs are still happening.

Thank Christ! For a second there, it seemed like Aussie voters were dead.

And they say there is no bias in the media. You see, while the NEWSPOLL poll has been getting the headlines, the Morgan Gallup poll has not. It seems it is in the media’s favour to continue the myth that Australia is still undecided. That is not the case. It seems according to the Morgan Gallup poll, Australians are quite happy with the outcome of the election.

But I guess that information is not as useful to selling papers as perpetuating the myth that life is on a knife’s edge is it? It’s in the interest of political commentators to be able to express their knowledge and their deep understanding of that knowledge and of course withhold any knowledge that goes against their expressed knowledge that would make it appear that they are not knowledgeable.

It’s like trying to academically explain the history of the joke.

The horror of it all of course is some jokes are best left hidden. Sort of like media bias.

A. Ghebranious  2010   All Rights Reserved


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5 Comments
  1. Catching up permalink

    Polls do seem to be missing from the headlines since the election.

  2. ghost ride that whip

  3. orlando seo permalink

    Excellent article, Just passed this on to a friend who read up on this and she took me to dinner after I gave her this site. So, Thanks!!

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