Oh Baby Give Me One More Chance!!!

I enjoyed some of the music of the late Michael Jackson, especially the era when he looked more like his family then Diana Ross.  But I digress. I like the song where I stole the title for this post a lot for example. It could be taken to mean that the electorate, if asked to go to the polls again may make different choices. However, I am bastardizing the song for political purposes of another kind.

In another song, Michael sang ‘ABC easy as 123, easy as DO RE ME, ABC, 123..’ etc. The reason I chose this song is the way it can relate to current federal politics. Allow me to explain.

We used to have a fairly simplistic song; ALP or LIB. It was that DO RE ME 123. Now we have a different landscape.

Now we have ALP, IND, GRN, LIB, LNP and of course NAT. The reason why I have divided the LIB and LNP from their past unity into different groups will hopefully come apparent I hope. And it will also teach betting companies from ever betting on outcomes of an election ever again. This is not sporting contest, no matter how it may appear like it to the outside world.

On Saturday, 21st August, Australia went to the polls. The result was a seemingly impressive gain of seats for the Coalition. Numbers though shows a more divided result. Of the 73 seats the Coalition has been declared to them, 42 are LIB seats and 21 are LNP seats.  The swing to the LNP was much larger than the swing to the LIB by a long shot! The LNP is currently led by Warren Truss and Barnaby Joyce. And there lies the problem.

To court the INDs, the LIBs will need to tell the LNP to sit in a corner. To misquote a line from ‘Dirty Dancing’,  no one pushes Barnaby Baby into a corner. Tony Abbott will need to really think about what he is about to do. Tony is basically playing a game of Kerplunk. He is trying to find that impasse stick to pull out without losing all his marbles.

The Bob Katter amongst the pigeons is he will NEVER be able to sit down in the same cabinet room as Truss or Joyce. There is a lot of water under the bridge between them AND the bridge has been demolished just in case. If Abbott appears to be appeasing INDs over his allies in the LNP, then his LNP allies will be allies no more.

I doubt the LNP will ever stand for being told to dump Truss and Joyce for the chance to govern. Especially when Katter and Tony Windsor remind LNP voters that while in Coalition, regional Australia was treated like discarded tissues. This in itself can have horrifying results for a QLD state election in the future.

Maybe Abbott can find the right stick to pull out without pulling out what is left of his hair. Still he has to ultimately face the other problem from the WA, his NAT problem. To ask Tony Crook to side with him will be a huge ask especially when Crook’s electorate voted out a LIB in Wilson Tuckey! It’s like a bag of fireworks near a campfire isn’t it?

And then we have Andrew Wilkie. He so much loves the LIBs for losing his house and his career in high court cases designed to jail him. I don’t know. Maybe he has forgiven them already.  Adam Brandt, the GRN candidate has announced a preference, but also says he is prepared to work with either side if stable enough.

It’s now back to stability! Abbott’s idea of stability is based on who voted for whom. I got more votes nationally he cried. But Mr Abbott, you won 2 from 6 states. Big win there.  Also the INDs and the NAT and the GRN have all talked about stability to also means views and direction. It is no coincidence that the INDs and the NAT and the GRN have similar views. It is because these views had been ignored by the LIBs under John Howard. And people do not forget.

Bob Katter had a brilliant line yesterday. He said that the LIBs and Abbott talk about direct action and thats nice, but the ALP is actually doing it and not talking about it.

*ouch*

If we go to another election,  then that should be in 50% if not all ALP ads.

The ALP on the other hand has only one perceived problem: the Kevin Rudd factor. While in government, if they were able to form one that is, he would be relentlessly attacked by the opposition who would also see the opportunity to discredit the GRN and the INDs  just in time for another election. Unless there was no Rudd factor. If Julia Gillard managed to convince KEV to become SOH (Speaker of the house), then the goes the LEMON 07 factor. The fact that the ALP shares more policies with the INDs and the GRN and the NAT, albeit in differing amounts, puts them in a stronger position to actually create a stable govt. That and a GRN dominated senate can just give them the winning edge in this game of…  Who do you Truss(up)?

A.Ghebranious

Love these songs!